Britain’s economy has lost momentum in 2019, hurt by a global downturn due to the US-China trade war as well as increased Brexit uncertainty
In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI contracted even more sharply than in Britain, reflecting the bloc’s greater reliance on exports to China.
The British Retail Consortium said high street spending rose 0.6% in October, the most since April. But on a rolling basis sales have grown by an average of just 0.1% over the past 12 months, the lowest on record. A brighter note came from a survey by HSBC which, in contrast to most others, showed businesses were cheerier about export prospects than a year ago.Businesses have struggled to plan around deadlines for leaving the EU that have changed three times this year, leading to volatility in official figures that has not always been tracked by the PMI.
Most economists expect a limited rebound in the third quarter, meaning Britain would dodge a recession.But the overall picture is muted, with Morgan Stanley — one of the gloomier forecasters — predicting growth of just 0.2% in the third quarter and stagnation in the fourth.
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