The U.K.’s economic performance since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic has surpassed that of France and Germany, according to data revisions published Friday.
, and this monetary policy tightening is in the early stages of feeding through into the real economy.
"Output is only 0.4% higher than where it was at the same time a year ago. If anything, the GDP data revisions may marginally dampen the U.K.'s growth prospects for 2023 and 2024 as they reduce the potential for bounce-back growth." U.K. GDP contracted by a deeper-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month in July, and Finney suggested that alongside recent PMI readings, a slight contraction may be on the cards for the third quarter.Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said Friday's data offers some hope that the U.K. may avoid recession, while signs are emerging that the country's cost-of-living crisis may be easing for households.
"However, given the speed of interest rate rises and the cumulative effect of the cost of living crisis, it may just be a case of the pain being delayed, with 2024 looking more challenging."
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