From matchup predictions to fight of the night potential, we look at predictive models and data to better understand what will happen.
Alexandre Pantoja will look to defend his flyweight title on home soil against Steve Erceg in the main event of UFC 301. Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of"Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts," the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.
Since 2011, Brazilians facing non-Brazilian opponents in events held in Brazil have a record of 225-127, excluding draws and no contests. That's an impressive win percentage of 64%. Brazilians managed a winning record each year, save for 2019, when they closed the year 12-12 against foreign opponents. Their best year was 2011, when they won at an 88% clip, including a 7-1 record against non-Brazilians at UFC 134 in Rio de Janeiro.
The betting markets are pretty good at predicting favorites, and Brazilian home-cage fighters average -140 betting favorites. They were supposed to win, and they did. Looking a layer deeper would be to test whether Brazilians have been performing well against these high market expectations, rather than just straight up.
Since 2019, Brazilians in the home cage have been missing market expectations, albeit just barely. Any single loss during those years turned to a win would have swung them back into the net positive versus betting odds, so it's not a big miss. But still, the early years of blindly backing Brazilians and walking away with a profit appeared to be gone.
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