The U.S. government has warned that the war in Ukraine has 'raised geopolitical tensions in the Arctic'
In October, the U.S. government-wide Arctic strategy said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has"raised geopolitical tensions in the Arctic" and created"new risks of unintended conflict."
Russia also has offensive goals in the Arctic, the CSIS said, such as using it as a staging ground for power projection, as a possible site for hybrid activities to intimidate European Arctic countries, not to mention the scene of"an unlikely—but not unthinkable—wider NATO-Russia conflict." Russia's military bases, airfields and the presence of its Northern Fleet in the Murmansk region are part of its significant investment in the region which has not been a top security priority for the United States or NATO in recent years.
The strength of international agreements has led Humpert to believe that there would not be a fight initiated in the region over its resources. Rather, he says a more likely scenario is a conflict that gets"ignited outside the Arctic and it percolates into the Arctic—where the Arctic becomes a theater of a war."
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