An analysis of federal data for the first time estimates excess deaths -- the number beyond what would normally be expected -- during that period.
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But in any pandemic, higher-than-normal mortality is a starting point for scientists seeking to understand the full impact of the disease. The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic. Those incomplete numbers were widely cited at a time when many states were making critical decisions about closing businesses and taking other actions to stem the spread of the virus.
Some of Trump’s defenders have claimed that covid-19 death figures are inflated because they may include people who died with the disease but not of it. The NCHS recently started keeping its own tally of covid-19 deaths, separate from the tallies based on states’ reports to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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“That number is going to go up,” he said. “Those deaths are only hospitalization or nursing home deaths. That does not have what are called at-home deaths.” She says her father’s death should be reflected in the covid-19 death toll and fears that an artificially low count is giving some states license to reopen their economies prematurely. “You have to have the data to make an intelligent decision, and if you’re not counting the number of people who died from this, then you’re not making an intelligent decision,” she said.
Interviews and 911 call data from other cities also suggest a spike in the numbers of people dying at home, a circumstance that makes them less likely to be tested for the coronavirus or included in the official death counts. For instance, the updates New York City has made to its covid-19 death tolls include hundreds of such at-home deaths.
Lags in the reporting of overall deaths could also play a role, Weinberger said. Though the federal government’s provisional death count through April 4 is more complete than its count for more recent weeks, it remains incomplete, and the number of overall deaths is likely to continue to rise in coming months as states report additional deaths from those weeks.
Crime patterns are changing in some places, too. Miami did not report a single homicide for seven weeks and six days, from mid-February to mid-April, police said. The last time the city was free of homicides for that long was in 1957. The state is enduring one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the country after more than 1 million people gathered for Mardi Gras festivities in New Orleans in February. The analysis estimates, however, that although 408 people were reported to have died of covid-19 by April 4, Louisiana had slightly fewer deaths overall than normal during the preceding five weeks. According to the Yale team’s estimates, Louisiana has recently been among the slower states to report deaths.
“Thus I would probably add about 15% or so to the known death toll,” she wrote to two city officials. “However — no city or state will be factoring this in or reporting it, so I don’t think we should either. We should just assume that the deaths are about 15% more than we can count, but not include them in official modeling, because we will never really know.”
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