Today, we’ll get a hint of whether Democrats’ electoral advantage on paper will hold up in practice. A full special election preview, via FiveThirtyEight:
And as always, who votes will matter. About 118,000 ballots had been returned as of May 11,, and at first blush, they bode well for Garcia — registered Republicans have cast 44.5 percent of them versus 35.6 percent by Democrats, plus 20.0 percent by independents or other parties.
But these figures aren’t all that different from the, when registered Republicans had cast 45.0 percent of ballots compared to 36.6 percent by Democrats, plus 18.4 percent by others. Yet in the first round of voting, the Democratic candidates combined to win 51 percent of the vote, while Republicans won 49 percent.
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