Today\u0027s oil prices are softening not because supply is ample, but because of the growing fear of recession. Read more
Oil markets have avoided the apocalyptic scenarios energy analysts were warning of just six months ago, when a 1970s-style shock seemed unavoidable as rampantly rising post-pandemic demand met the possibility of new supply disruption.
But no one should be too sanguine about the softer market. Oil prices can fall for good reasons — such as technological breakthroughs that reduce demand or free up more supply — as well as for bad reasons, such as recession. And this oil market is not in a good state. Where supply is robust, it is unexpectedly so — as in Russia, where western sanctions have barely scratched the oil sector — or unnaturally so, as in the U.S., where Biden ordered oil from a federal emergency stockpile to be poured into the market. This has helped cap prices, but a market kept in check by a government’s decision to unleash historic volumes of emergency oil is not a natural state of affairs.
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