Economists at Standard Chartered expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to raise policy rates further on price and external headwin
We expect the CBRT to raise the one-week repo rate by 200 bps to 19.5% on 24 August. The CBRT has hiked rates by 900 bps in the last two months and used various policy and prudential measures to underscore its commitment to the ongoing shift towards orthodox policy. This marks a departure from the policy mix prior to Türkiye’s May elections. We expect this approach to continue amid resurgent price pressures, Turkish Lira weakness, and rising external and fiscal imbalances.
We expect the central bank to proceed cautiously with rate hikes, based on recent monetary policy decisions and CBRT communications. We forecast the weekly repo rate at 24.0% by end-2023. A continuation of recent coordinated monetary, fiscal, and macro-prudential measures to rein in domestic demand and address market distortions could lead to some initial improvements as early as H1-2024.Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.
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