Whatever the future holds for the fired Fox News host, he has no “lane” in a presidential competition featuring Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.
Yes, it’s possible DeSantis will fade and fail in 2024. But if he does, it will be far down the road toward the GOP nomination. There’s something about the idea of Carlson competing with DeSantis, Pence, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott on the ponderous and highly retail campaign circuit in Iowa that strains credulity.
But the main reason Carlson ’24 isn’t happening is the most obvious: What does he bring to the table that his occasional idol Donald Trump doesn’t? There are droves of Republicans who are repelled or terrified by some aspect of Trump’s personality but accept it as part of the magic formula that also led to a policy record they are proud of. And for all the fears about, he did win in 2016 and came closer to victory in 2020 than most independent observes thought possible.
It’s fun to imagine Carlson as a candidate in a presidential debate, where his demagogic skills might give him an advantage. But in the end, he’d almost certainly be ground up between Trump and DeSantis or whichever credible non-Trump candidate emerges without a long record of nauseating and fully televised utterances.
To be clear, Carlson remains a wee lad at 53; depending on what he does next, he can always find the right moment for a career in politics. He might want to find a place to live that would provide a home base other than on television , and it’s always perilous to have nowhere to begin other than a bid for the very pinnacle of U.S. government. The odds are reasonably high that Carlson’s career has already peaked.
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