Trudeau Liberals should be ‘worried’ about bleeding support to Conservatives, say veteran pollsters via thehilltimes
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals are losing support to the Conservatives, according to recent national public opinion polls. Pollsters say the Liberals should be worried about it, as the next election will be the governing Liberals' fourth, and it's a serious challenge for any government to win four in a row.
The Liberals won 1.4 million fewer votes in the 2021 election than they did when they came to power in 2015 with a majority government. They won 159 seats in the last election, up from 157 in 2019, but down from 184 in 2015. Conservative front-runner Pierre Poilievre is the prohibitive front-runner in the Conservative leadership election who could mount a serious challenge against the Liberals in the next election, say political insiders.Trudeau’s disapproval rating is highest in British Columbia, Alberta, and Quebec, with a 63 per cent disapproval among those over the age of 55.
Trudeau, however, has reiterated many times that he has no plans to leave before the next election. If he chose to leave early, a number of potential candidates are expected to run for the party’s top job, including Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland ; Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne ; Defence Minister Anita Anand ; Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly ; and Diversity Minister Ahmed Hussen .
Polling from Nanos Research, released at the end of June, showed the leaderless Conservative Party with a five percentage point lead, 36-31, ahead of Trudeau’s Liberals, and its founder and chief data scientist Nik Nanos argues the probability of a CPC win is higher than it has been in seven years. If the Liberals want to have any chance to improve those numbers before 2025, Nanos said the party has to start saying and doing something new other than spending money.
Nanos also pointed to the fact that the Liberals didn’t even receive a positive polling boost after the recent budget was released, suggesting Canadians may just be “grumpy.”
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