One face is filled with sunlight, the other peers blindly into a stygian coal mine
On May 5, two keynote speeches at opposite ends of the country presented two not only different but completely incompatible visions for the just transition to a low-carbon future. Both visions are supported by the government. This consistently inconsistent messaging from within the cabinet is a key reason for SA’s infuriating inability to address its energy crisis.
Mbalula emphasised that “it is poorer communities … that are most vulnerable to climate change” and that “renewable energy production will make electricity cheaper and more dependable, which will have positive knock-on effects on our energy-dependent economic sectors”. Renewables would “ensure an affordable and reliable supply of electricity for all citizens, to stimulate greater investment and employment in our country”.
Since the 1970s, hopes have been raised that “clean coal” technologies could reduce emissions. But every big “clean coal” project on earth has failed, due to expense and technical problems. The WCA itself estimates that building the “ultra-supercritical” plants that reduce some COemissions of about 22%. Pursuing this option would hugely increase the cost of energy, and not do nearly enough to reduce emissions.
Eskom COO Jan Oberholzer participated in several of the coal conference panel discussions. I keep replaying in my mind his calm, insistent repetition of one simple fact: Eskom must retire 22GW of coal-fired capacity by 2035 — not because it is desperately concerned about carbon emissions, but because so many of its power stations are already stretched to or beyond breaking point.
Oberholzer said, again and again: “I don’t think anybody in this country understands what that means. We’re just sitting here talking.”
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