Biden’s lead in national polls continues to hover around 8-10 points in polling averages.
Nate Silver, a polling analyst and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, criticized those who pointed to RealClearPolitics’ Pennsylvania tracker as proof Biden’s lead was evaporating in the state. “Folks, Biden's lead didn't shrink from 7.3 points to 3.6 points in PA in a week at the same time it was steady or slightly growing nationally,” Silver wrote on Twitter.
He later argued that RealClearPolitics’ tracker not only incorporated questionable polls, but also had too short of a “time horizon” for which polls it included. “This is why you need poll averages that take a longer time horizon and/or adjust for house effects,” he said. Biden’s polling lead has remained steady or increased in both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics’ polling averages in
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