Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BMO chief economist Doug Porter attempted to interpret conflicting signals from the domestic housing market,
“The most surprising aspect of the latest batch of Canadian housing data was the deep drop in new listings. They fell 7.9% m/m in February and are now at the lowest level since 2004, aside from the depths of 2020. In turn, this has actually tightened the market, even though sales have plunged 40% y/y. The sales-to-new listings ratio has been quietly climbing since bottoming out last fall. This ratio tends to lead prices by about 4-5 months, and suggests that things could soon stabilize.
“It is well understood that the risk off tone has roiled global markets, but major crude benchmarks have underperformed many other corners of the market such as the SPX and even crypto with Bitcoin .
“Tighter lending standards will slow growth and hiring. Weekly lending and labor market data will be the first to show signs of stress, but we’re not likely to see the full effects for several weeks. Our bank analysts see a meaningful increase in funding costs ahead, which will lead to tighter lending standards, slower loan growth, and wider loan spreads.
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