There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model.
There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research. The only other times that recession model was this high has been during severe economic downturns, most recently in 2020 and during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. “This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023,” economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday.
Seventy-nine percent of the economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect rising prices to trigger social unrest in low-income countries, compared to a 20% expectation in high-income economies. Investors are also getting more concerned, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sinking into a bear market Monday for the first time since March 2020.
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