In the knockout stage, teams that have beaten predicted scoring margins in the group stage tend to overperform
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskSupporters of the victors surely enjoyed such lopsided wins, but might downplay their significance. Should a bevy of goals against one weak opponent really change perceptions of a team’s chances at a title? Our study finds that the answer is “yes”.
But updating expectations using small samples requires careful adjustments. In the group stage, the average strength of a team’s opponents varies widely. The Netherlands had a glide path to the knockout stage in 2022, facing two middle-ranking teams and Qatar, a weakling. In contrast, the deck was stacked against Costa Rica, whose group includes Spain and Germany.
For example, in 2002 Germany had the ninth-best Elo score. Its group-stage rivals were eighth, 18th and 28th. Based on these ratings, Germany should have outscored its opponents by one goal in total. Thanks to an 8-0 drubbing of Saudi Arabia, it beat this benchmark by nine. In the knockout stage, Germany’s rivals had also exceeded group-stage forecasts—but only by 2.6 goals, leaving a gap of 6.4 in the Germans’ favour. They went on to reach the final.
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