One year later, the math still isn’t pretty.
Methane is actually much easier to monitor from space, since it erupts in great quantities from leaking oil wells. Scientists are finding a lot more anthropogenic methane in the atmosphere than expected, McCormick says, and not necessarily because nations are underreporting their emissions. “The clear offender is the oil and gas sector,” says McCormick.
Humanity’s trajectory seems to be somewhere in the middle, thanks in large part to the cratering prices of renewable energy tech, like wind and solar. Those represent a substantial improvement since the 2015 Paris Agreement. “Ten years ago, no one would have believed that solar would be 10 times cheaper,” says Zeke Hausfather, head of climate research at Stripe.
That’s still way, way above the 1.5-degree goal of the agreement—every fraction of a degree brings increasingly catastrophic consequences. “Given the current pledges, we’re going to overshoot 1.5 degrees,” says economist Haewon McJeon, who studies climate pledges at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, although he points out that this overshoot could be temporary. “Once you overshoot, you need to bring it back down to 1.5.
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