Pundits have long predicted the governing ANC would drop below 50% and lose its majority, and so coalition talk has tailed the campaigning alongside opposition parties’ determined boosting of their chances at the hustings. But the devil is in the details – from geography to voter turnout and voter sentiment.
With a last burst of election rah-rah at rallies this weekend, political parties must hope that they have done enough in this pivotal and hotly contested poll. On Wednesday next week, it’s over to the voters.and cities, led marches against all manner of issues and knocked on doors. It has been an intense campaign, regardless of party colours.
Ramaphosa remains more popular than the ANC itself, and trust in political leadership – the Ramaphosa factor – is a crucial determinant in voters’ choices inMuch of the governing party’s election calculations seem based on offsetting losses in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng by boosting support to 80% or more in the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga and Limpopo, according to the leaked audio of April’s National Executive Committee election meeting.
The 2024 elections, different to previous ones, have emphasised provincial dynamics. Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal have emerged as potential kingmakers. The impact of the MK party headed by ex-president Jacob Zuma remains to be seen. Whether the party’s leadership battles have dented support will unfold on election day, but Zuma has been a pull factor in the ethnic vote in KwaZulu-Natal – when he was ANC president support shot up to 62.9% in 2009 and 64.5% in 2014, but dropped back to 54.2% in 2019, according to IEC statistics.
While the DA internal polling earlier in 2024 hit 27% nationally, pundits’ estimates of support hovered around 21% to 22%, indicating a lack of significant growth over time. But anything better than the 20.7% support of 2019 will have the DA claiming success, even if its opposition coalition Moonshot Pact is shot down.
The DA is not a racist party at their core, but they make the task of convincing the majority of people in this country of that, IE getting the votes they need to take power away from the ANC, very difficult.Correction. 6 out of 13. Which remains a long way from the stated 36 out of 40. Where does that figure come from?The problem is that the perception is that they are a white party. And that is what counts since, as the writer says, good governance doesn’t feature too much.
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