The S&P 500 can underperform its long-term average for a long time
“You will lag the long-term average if your investment horizon misses the market’s few stellar years.”
When I make this point to financial advisers, many think I’m referring to Japan’s stock market, since it trades today well below its all-time high in 1989, 34 years ago. They dismiss Japan’s experience as nothing more than an exception that proves the rule. In contrast, the green line represents the S&P 500’s SPX real total return since September 1967. On an annualized basis, its rate of return since September 1967 has been 5.7% annualized.
You may think this illustration has little relevance to today’s stock market, since the S&P 500’s real total return is 18% lower than where it was at the top of the bull market in January 2022. So even if bubble-like conditions existed then, you could still argue that much of the hot air has been let out of that bubble.
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