The Osun State gubernatorial election holding next Saturday will clearly attract outsized attention. This will happen for many reasons.
An obvious one is that off-cycle elections, naturally, generate heightened interest, given the quantum of resources poured into them and the absence of distraction from other elections, local and national.
But it is a more crowded field this time around. The presence of at least two other high-heeled candidates promises an even keener competition: Honourable Yusuf Lasun, former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and the candidate of the Labour Party; and Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi of Accord, who had lost the primaries of the Peoples Democratic Party with just seven votes.
However, the outcome of the election will decide more than Oyetola’s standing. Even when this may not play high or even play at all on the minds of the Osun voters, the outcome of the election will be seen as a proxy of the regional weight of someone whose name is not even on the ballot: Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress .
But Tinubu’s dominance over South West politics has not gone unchallenged. His preferred candidates do not always win the primaries of his party in the zone, and his party suffers from occasional reversal of fortune. The challenge to his supremacy has come not just from outside but also from his closest allies. For example, there was a bitter falling-out between him and Aregbesola over the conduct of the Osun State primaries earlier in the year.
Omisore, a former deputy governor of the state, is the strongman of Ife politics. In terms of the number of local government areas, his area of influence covers almost 50% of his senatorial district and about 20% of the state. One of the things that will be watched closely is if he can deliver his stronghold and in bloc to his new party, the APC, in Saturday’s election.Based on recent run of events, many people can be forgiven when they think or say the Yoruba vote as a bloc.
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