Erdogan’s party suffered a historic loss in this weekend’s elections. To preserve his legacy, Turkey’s strongman should step aside after his third term.
Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a leader in Turkey's opposition party, celebrate after polls closed in local elections on Sunday. It’s a dangerous moment for Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He has ruled comfortably for more than 20 years, with his political opponents squabbling and in disarray. But things are clearly changing.
Imamoglu’s victory elevates the mayor to a de facto leadership role inside the opposition and makes him a likely competitor in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2028. As if to foreshadow this race, the mayor’s victory speech to a large crowd outside Istanbul city hall at midnight coincided with Erdogan’s concession speech in Ankara. Erdoganimmediately after he was elected in 2019 and have come to know him personally since.
But it is too early to write off Erdogan. He is a survivor and pragmatist who can skillfully switch alliances to stay in power. Erdogan’s third and final presidential term is over in 2028, but few expect him to step down. His strategy will likely be to muddle through until 2028, hoping to reap the benefits if Turkey’s economy recovers on his watch. He will also likely push for constitutional changes to allow another term.
A different path is open to Erdogan. He could choose to step down after his third term and rightly claim to have been a transformational Turkish leader no less consequential than modern Turkey’s founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Instead of trying to be a forever president like Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, he should focus on his own legacy, on the livelihood of Turkey’s citizens and on securing Turkey’s place in a chaotic world until his term is over.
After this weekend, it’s clear that Turkey’s voters have spoken — and are ready for change. Will Erdogan hear them?
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