Arend Kapteyn, global head of economic research at UBS, said the first Fed rate cut could come in March.
tool places the probability of the Fed standing pat on interest rates at more than 50% through September. For the central bank's meetings in November and December, that probability falls to 47% and and 40.5%. The tool is based on futures pricing from live markets and reflects the views of traders placing real bets on the CME exchange.
Kapteyn noted that Fed officials themselves have shown little inclination to make any moves, with meeting minutes indicating that they're at "a comfortable hold" and would want to see "a material downshift in the data" before reassessing their position. "We think they're going to get that downshift. I think you need quite a bit of additional evidence though before they get there. So, we're thinking first cut maybe in March but we really need to see ... loss of growth momentum," he said.
Still, Kapteyn stressed that the impact from tariffs could just be temporary and that the U.S. is not headed into a recession. "Even though we have this big slowdown and these cuts, we don't think you get to recession level," he said. "So basically temporary disruption, you get past them pretty quickly and then everything is back to trend."
South Africa Latest News, South Africa Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Hollywood Assistants Are Fed Up and No Longer Afraid to Say SoLOS ANGELES -- Kiran Subramaniam was in her mid-20s when she was hired as an assistant at ICM, one of the Big Four talent agencies in Los Angeles. The job paid $12 an hour. One day, her boss, an agent, tossed a small package at her head after she had placed it on his desk in a way he didn&39;t like.
Read more »
What the Fed Fears: People Who Can’t Remember Rising PricesLow-inflation expectations can be self-fulfilling if they cause consumers to balk at higher prices and businesses to refrain from raising prices and wages
Read more »
Fed on hold, but will financial risks matter?U.S. Federal Reserve officials may be in broad agreement that interest rates are...
Read more »
Greenland’s Ice Melt Rate Has Now Accelerated To A Whopping 234 Billion Tons Of Ice Lost Per YearGreenland’s current rate of ice loss has accelerated from 25 billion to 234 billion tons per year, a whopping nine times increase in faster melt rate.
Read more »
Fed on hold, but will financial risks matter?U.S. Federal Reserve officials may be in broad agreement that interest rates are...
Read more »
'Worst thing' an investor could do right now is take profits, PNC's Amanda Agati saysHere's the 'worst thing' a stock market investor could do right now (via TradingNation)
Read more »