This season’s early success may not be as promising as it appears for the defending NFC champions.
. Philadelphia has been forced into three-and-out situations far more often than in the first two weeks of the previous two seasons. The team’s points per drive, plays per drive, yards per drive and red-zone efficiency are also down.
Instead of looking at Philadelphia’s record as an unblemished 2-0, we can look at how likely they were to be 2-0 based on their performance in the first two games. After stripping out the role luck played in those two games by adding or subtracting— the difference in expected points before and after a play, revealing how much a play contributed to or detracted from a team’s scoring potential — the Eagles’ performance indicates just an 18 percent chance of being 2-0. That’s the lowest of any of the league’s nine undefeated teams, although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are close at 19 percent.
Why should we care how lucky an undefeated team has been? After all, a win is a win. But there are warning signs when teams win more games than the underlying numbers would have suggested. NFL teams that were fortunate to be 2-0 are more likely to have limited playoff success. The 2016 Minnesota Vikings, with just a 16 percent chance, were the luckiest team to start 2-0 since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams. They ended up missing the playoffs.
And yet the Eagles remain among the top three choices in the betting markets for eventual Super Bowl champion, with a price of about +750. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have shorter odds. Time will tell if the Eagles’ performance can match their record, making them legitimate contenders in the NFL. Until then, it’s best to approach their success with cautious optimism.
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