🏠 The cities where house prices are most likely to fall
Homes, like stocks, are in a period of divergence right now.When you buy a stock, the chances of it broadly mirroring the market as a whole are now pretty low. In housing too, different markets around the country are likely to diverge significantly.from hedge fund DE Shaw shows that in 2021, the Nasdaq-100 index had an extremely strong positive correlation with bond yields, while the Russell-1000 value index had an equally strong negative correlation.
20 years earlier, all such correlations were extremely weak, and insofar as they existed, they were the other way around.An analysis by Home.LLC for Axios looks at market conditions in 100 metropolitan areas around the country to see which markets are the riskiest — which is to say, the most likely to see modest price declines over the next 12 months.
Austin is also likely to see a significant drop-off in demand, just because homes have become so expensive there that they are no longer affordable to most locals looking to buy.House price dynamics in markets like Cleveland and Detroit are still pretty constructive — but that's not true in the sun belt.
The riskiest markets over the next 12 months, per Home.LLC: Provo, Utah; Lakeland and Cape Coral, in Florida; and Austin. The other side: "Most cities will see a deceleration in home prices — not a crash," Home.LLC founder Nik Shah tells Axios.
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