✒️ HamishMcRae5 explores whether there will be any room for tax cuts in the budget on 15 March And would they boost growth anyway? 📨 Read his latest newsletter here ⤵️
is rising. It comes from Tory backbenchers of course, but also from some business leaders. Even those who would oppose general cuts, such as the director general of the CBI, Tony Danker, want investment incentives to offset the rise in corporation tax.
Some numbers to make this clearer. That dreadful December borrowing figure was a bit of a freak. The Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast it would be “only” £17.6bn, with most of the difference because student loans have been reclassified. The loans are debts by individuals to the UK government and the broad assumption is that most of the debt will be repaid. But it won’t.
What the PM and the Chancellor have to hope – and more important, we as taxpayers have to hope – is that the variables will turn out towards the favourable end of the scale. If they do, everything will look brighter. Here are five of the most important of those variables.First, energy, food and raw material prices go on coming down. We just had sometoday for producer prices. On the face of it they were terrible.
Four, Europe seems to be pulling through better than expected, which in turn will help our exports and hence employment here. The US may also do better than previously thought too. The basic point is that if most of the global economy avoids recession, we may do so too. The Government needs to remove roadblocks to growth in regulation as well as taxation. And it should get on with that right away, so that as and when it can ease up on taxes, the country gets the boost it needs.The economic outlook has brightened a little, and whereas I felt rather lonely a couple of months ago as a cautious optimist, I am now in better company.
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