Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk pointed to constantly changing forecasts ahead of the floods as one reason emergency planning was so difficult. But experts say that was to be expected, and the Bureau of Meteorology is more accurate than ever.
But forecasting for how an extreme weather event will impact a specific area is different to day-to-day predictions.
Weather systems are constantly developing, and change as they pass through changing environments, which also affects how fast and where they move, making timing hard to predict. "Rainfall is very difficult, it is not something you are going to get right 100 per cent of the time — and it's unfortunate but understandable that when you get an extreme event, those are the circumstances when you are most likely not to be correct."And while forecasts changed as the system developed, BOM noted it gave warnings days in advance.
Since then its funding has improved, and the Bureau said in a statement that it had not had its funding reduced overall. One former BOM employee, who did not work in forecasting or emergency response, told the ABC it was unlikely that staff shortages affected the Bureau's forecasting over the weekend.The Community and Public Sector Union noted that despite an overall increase in funding, there were 122 fewer BOM employees last year compared to a decade ago.
That meant when planes around the world were grounded due to the pandemic, the Bureau of Meteorology lost around 800,000 daily observations to help make its forecasts.
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