The best line in the first televised debate may hurt the Democrats

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The best line in the first televised debate may hurt the Democrats
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Democratic candidates for the nomination are chasing policies that delight the party’s activists

televised debates of the 2020 nominating contest, Democratic presidential candidates made one thing clear: they will not be hiding their enthusiasm for policies that delight the party’s activists. The most memorable moment came when Kamala Harris, the junior senator from California, confronted former vice-president Joe Biden for his record on school busing .

Ms Harris’s barbs appear to have won favour from Democratic primary voters. According to a poll conducted on behalf ofby YouGov, their support for Ms Harris increased by 6 percentage points in the week following the first debates. This is no fluke. Other pollsters have also detected a boomlet in support for the senator.

Ms Harris might also face a backlash for holding views on economics that are too liberal for the electorate. The senator supports lefty proposals like the Green New Deal and abolishing private health insurance, for example. In another paper last year Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson, both of Stanford, found that candidates perceived as ideologically extreme face a penalty at the ballot box because they fire up the other side. This is another possible explanation for Mrs Clinton’s loss in 2016.

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will need to retain the support of a small but still important band of conservative Democrats. According to YouGov’s polling, they still make up 9% of the party today. Yet nominating a candidate just to assuage this group comes with a trade-off. The Democratic nominee also needs to get non-white voters to the polls.

Whomever the Democrats nominate will have to mimic the campaign style of Mr Obama, who owed his wins to a multiracial coalition. He simultaneously convinced whites of his moderation and excited African-Americans. In March 2008 Mr Obama delivered the most memorable speech of his campaign. Americans, he said, “need to come together” to solve a set of problems “that are neither black or white or Latino or Asian, but rather problems that confront us all.

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