'The basic metal of electrification': Why famed energy analyst Daniel Yergin sees a copper crunch looming — via financialpost Renewables Oil Gas Mining Energy ElectricVehicles
“Copper is the basic metal of electrification,” Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, told the Financial Post. “And the whole thrust of the post-Paris conference is around electrifying the world, and so really, copper is that fundamental mineral that’s required for the energy transition.”
A key fact undergirding the report is that all the technologies that are critical to an energy transition, including solar panels and wind turbines, electric vehicles and batteries, charging infrastructure and the wires that comprise the grid itself, require more copper than the technologies used to produce energy from fossil fuels.
Because copper is used so widely, in everything from electronics to jewelry, brass hardware and construction equipment, the persistent supply deficit creates cost pressures that translate into price inflation and supply-chain disruptions. But it focuses on copper because of its versatility and essential role in power infrastructure, transportation and renewable resources.
A worker in heat resistant protective clothing on the liquid copper mold production line at the KGHM Polska Miedz SA smelting plant in Glogow, Poland.“We don’t run out of anything in commodity markets, we engineer out,” Colin Hamilton, a commodities analyst for BMO Capital Markets, told the Financial Post last month.
On the supply side, Yergin and his team see the issues around new mines as one of the main choke points, citing an International Atomic Energy Association study that suggests it takes 16 years from discovery to first production at a major mine. John Mothersole, director, non-ferrous metals, economics and country risk, at S&P Global Market Intelligence, who contributed to the report, said that those changes to mining regulations may be a response to past experiences with the mining sector. The risk to the energy transition is that the environmental regulations are left in flux, and companies delay investments in a country until there is a more certain framework.
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