Last time out, we were at the heart of the political drama... and it looks like it'll be the same again in 2024
Four-and-a-half years ago, Greater Manchester was at the centre of a political earthquake. Seats were decided by just over 100 votes - the closest in Great Britain. Previously never-Tory constituencies backed the Conservatives - an embodiment of the ‘red wall’ backing Boris.
If either are successful, they will need to win a swathe of ‘swing seats’ - so-called because they can change every election - and our region is awash with constituencies where it’ll be tight between the parties. But Sir Graham doesn’t have to worry about the poll this year, because he’s standing down. That means his party has lost a candidate with huge personal appeal.
There have been a series of boundary changes, which means the seat will now include almost a third of the old Denton and Reddish constituency, which have been Labour for a while.Bolton North East Mark Logan won this seat in 2019 for the Conservatives, the first time it was Tory since 1997. His majority was small - very small - at just 378.
Bolton West Like Bolton North East, Bolton West can be considered a must-win for any government. It’s usually a bellwether seat, with Julie Hilling’s 2010 win for Labour the only exception. The Conservatives won it in 1983, 1987, and 1992 when they were in Number 10. It went Labour in 1997, 2001, and 2005 - before going back blue in 2010 and 2015. The only exception has been 2017, when James Frith won for Labour - although it must be said that election resulted in a hung parliament rather than a Conservative majority.
With a lot of complexity in the air and such a small majority to work with, it’s anyone’s guess who will win. Hazel Grove Hazel Grove is a big one for the Lib Dems. It was as safe as any of their seats could be for the party from 1997 to 2010, and then in the exodus of voters away from Liberal Democrats, William Wragg snapped it up in 2015.
Leigh and Atherton When Labour lost Leigh in 2019, Andy Burnham’s former seat and one they’d held since 1922, it was a hammer blow to the party. Some said it was emblematic of a party that had lost its connection with Northern voters, while others said it was solely around Brexit. While that’s 1,498 more than she needed, the political sands have shifted under her feet somewhat in the intervening years. George Galloway’s Workers Party is standing here, and in the local elections a few weeks ago, independents, Tories, and Lib Dems all won in wards which make up this seat. Labour didn’t get a sniff.Oldham West and Royton Like Oldham East, this seat was only created in 1997 and it’s always been Labour.
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