Democrats hold seven of the 10 seats most likely to flip next year, an independent holds one and Republicans hold two – a breakdown that’s unlikely to change much, although the order of the ranking will likely evolve in the months to come.
With more candidates launching their campaigns this month, the prospect of competitive primaries has become more real – especially on the Republican side. That’s especially true in the top three seats most likely to flip, which represent the GOP’s best chances to pick up the one or two seats they’d need to control the chamber, depending on who wins the presidency.
West Virginia’s GOP primary – mainly between the governor and a congressman – was already brewing, but it’s looking even more contentious with outside groups like the Club for Growth’s political arm touting the millions they’re planning to spend. This race will be a marquee battle between the national GOP’s more establishment forces and the conservative outside group.
It’s impossible to talk about Republican primaries without discussing former President Donald Trump. Ever since 2016, loyalty to him has been a key litmus test for the GOP – often much more than actual conservatism. But adherence to his election conspiracy theories has sometimes hurt Republicans in general elections, with the 2022 midterms being a prime example.
The chairman of the NRSC, Montana Sen. Steve Daines, has endorsed Trump. And for now, at least, the former president appears to be playing along. CNN reported that he’s informed two House Freedom Caucus members whom he’s previously backed – in West Virginia and Montana – that they won’t have his support for the Senate. This month’s ranking isn’t all about primary drama, however.
Overall, the Senate map remains an offensive opportunity for Republicans.
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