Sales are expected to generate an increase of 5.5%, a major slowdown compared to last year.
Back-To-School sales are expected to generate an increase of +5.5%, a major slowdown compared to last year’s steep increase of +13.1% according to Consumer Growth Partners. This is anticipated despite the fact that a lot of states now offer a tax-free shopping period. .
Consumers appear to be cautious about spending and will only buy necessities. The higher prices on most consumer products, including high gasoline prices, caused by inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine hurt the outlook. In addition, there is a fear of a recession that will hit us in the first two quarters early next year.
During the back-to-school sale period, apparel and accessories are projected to grow about +5.9% compared to +13.1% in last year. Apparel was weak last year because most students studied from home. Now, purchases of clothing and footwear are necessary, since children often outgrow what they wore in the last year or two. On the other hand, sales of personal care items are projected to be down to just a +3.5% increase compared to gains of +6.5% last year.
The tax savings for back-to-school needs are managed and collected by the Federation of Tax Administrators. Some tax-free days were initiated as early as 1999 when Texas introduced them. Most recently, Connecticut added these savings days in 2022 when the state also saw the need to help home-bound students.
Tax holidays vary in length and in content by state. Some allow tax-free purchases for clothing and basic school supplies, while others extend the savings to computers, footwear, and backpacks. Some states like New York state charge tax only for apparel over $118 which is also a big help for parents shopping for apparel.
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