In a guest opinion series debating the wisdom of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, CChivvis argues that “the risk of escalation into a broader, more destructive war will persist as long as the fighting does”
, the war in Ukraine will pass its one-year mark with no end in sight. The costs are mounting, Europe faces an epic refugee crisis, tens of thousands of people have died and total casualties now run into the hundreds of thousands. Plans to provide Ukraine with Western tanks, announced in recent days, indicate that America, Germany and others are settling in for a much longer war. But in a prolonged conflict, far more will perish.
With luck the tanks may encourage Vladimir Putin to consider negotiations seriously. But he still cannot afford to retreat with nothing to show for his war, however deplorable it is. Given how much he has staked on this operation, its failure—let alone a larger loss that includes Crimea or other territory Russia took in 2014—would risk a revolt from inside Russia’s elites that destabilises his regime.
In America Congress has already voted for over $100bn in military, financial and other support to Ukraine. But public support for such measures is fading. A poll published in December from the Chicago council, an American think-tank, found that the share of Americans who believe that Washington should support Ukraine for “as long as it takes” dropped to 48%, down from 58% in July.
Many critics of negotiations object to the idea of diplomacy with a man like Mr Putin on principle, but Western powers should and do regularly negotiate with adversaries, including contemptible ones, when it serves national interests and prevents violence and human suffering.
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