An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
over the Northern Caribbean & is now a hurricane east of the Bahamas over the SW Atlantic making the sharp turn to the north/NW. The combination of lessening shear into early next week plus strong upper level diffluence thanks to a trough of low pressure to the north should lead to an eventually strong hurricane over the Western Atlantic with some impacts for Bermuda by about late Mon. into Tuesday followed by at least some threat to Newfoundland & Nova Scotia by late Wed./Thu.
The forecast track is pretty straight forward with a well established alleyway across the Western Atlantic with Franklin accelerating over the weekend while maturing then bending rather gently to the northeast once at about the latitude of Bermuda & the Carolina’s. Franklin should be at about Jacksonville’s latitude but 1,000+ miles to the east Monday.came off the coast of Africa last weekend. This wave may develop but appears destined to stay far out to the east over the Atlantic.
Check out the upper oceanic heat content [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season but it’s obvious there is a lot of very warm water at great depths over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico:Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds .
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:Surface analysis of the Gulf:for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
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