Michael Barone in dailyherald: Republicans have the opportunity - will they find a way to get their way in 2024?
Twelve or 13 months from now, the race for the Republican nomination for president -- and the race for the Democratic nomination, if there is one -- will probably be over.
Early on, the Democratic Party often had multicandidate brawls that produced surprise nominees such as George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton. Meanwhile, the Republican primaries featured one-on-one contests between nationally known contenders -- Gerald Ford versus Ronald Reagan in 1976, George H.W. Bush versus Bob Dole in 1988 and George W. Bush versus John McCain in 2000.
Past contests suggest what this will look like. Republicans' multicandidate races in 2008 and 2012 quickly boiled down to two-candidate runoff jousts. These pitted candidates who carried counties in major metropolitan areas, where Republican primary voters tend to be college graduates, against candidates who carried counties outside major metro areas, where most Republican primary voters are not college graduates.
In the 31 states that voted up through April 5 that year, Trump had significant leads of 4 points or more over the combined totals of Sens. Ted Cruz, of Texax, and Marco Rubio, of Florida, in only five states . If you add in the votes for John Kasich, whose John Weaver-managed campaign pitched its appeal to the kind of Republican voters who dislike Republican voters, the list narrows down to just Massachusetts and Mississippi.
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