Following months of lockdowns which have muted economic activity a Reuters poll taken in the past week suggested the region will contract 3.1% this year but bounce back to around 3.5% growth in 2021.
Some countries have begun relaxing restrictions but virus cases are still increasing, unlike in many developed countries that have started to show signs of recovery, so the uncertainty meant the range of forecasts for next year was wide — between flatlining and 4.8% growth.
South Africa has reported the most cases in Africa, partly reflecting more widespread testing, and it is harder to gauge the full extent of outbreaks elsewhere although there are no signs numbers are falling. “Growth downgrades dominate in a region where external and fiscal buffers were already substantially eroded. The impact of Covid-19 will reduce growth even further,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.
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