Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape in battleground states and shift contests away from President Trump
Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape in battleground states and shift contests away from President Donald Trump, according to a new analysis.
Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal — Administrative Theory & Praxiswhen considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.
Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, it could lose over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category.that are orders of magnitude higher than what's borne out so far in battleground states — a point some outside experts have seized on to inject a dose of skepticism in the study’s findings.
Bill Galston, a Brookings Institution scholar on governance, said the effects are only large enough to affect outcomes in states that are very narrowly divided. But he concluded that the study made sense.
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