Joel Gehrke is foreign affairs reporter for the Washington Examiner, with an emphasis on U.S. competition with China and Russia, Middle East policy following the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, and the crisis in Venezuela. Previously, he covered domestic politics for National Review Online.
An intensifying dispute in the South China Sea could have significant repercussions for China's attempt to seize territory from the Philippines and even ignite a military standoff between the communist regime and the United States.
The United States has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines and also sees a need to reject China’s attempt to lay claim to most of the South China Sea. It occurred just days after Chinese fighter jets harassed a Canadian surveillance plane participating in a United Nations mission to enforce sanctions on North Korea, which extended a pattern of Chinese maneuvers around the U.S. and allied militaries in the region.
“That effort will but up against U.S. requests and Australian interests in responding to the South China Sea developments in a way which is supportive of the United States and the Philippines,” Mazza said. “You would hope at least that ... whatever joint statement they make is quite pointed and specific. If, instead, it's vague commentary on the need for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, I think that will be a disappointment for the Biden administration.
That assessment, however, does not alleviate the pressure to develop a plan to manage China’s “slow-intensity conflict” with the Philippines, as another analyst put it. “Mother Nature has a say in how quickly this becomes a real crisis, as the grounded ship that the Philippines is using to secure its territory may break up before the end of the year,” longtime China watcher Bill Bishop wrote this week in Sinocism. “And that is what the PRC is waiting for, then they will swoop in and declare possession, unless the Philippines can get a lot of concrete and construction materials to the Sierra Madre soon.
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