El Niño looks likely to fade, but it has scorched a path of misery across southern Africa. El Niño looks likely to fade, but it has scorched a path of misery across southern Africa.
The current El Niño weather event, one of the five strongest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, is expected to fade soon. But its grim consequences will be felt in southern Africa for months to come.
The Kariba Dam is less than 17% full, threatening already erratic power supplies in Zimbabwe and Zambia. In Zambia, 90% of agriculture is conducted by small-scale subsistence farmers who rely on rain. Agriculture accounts for 19% of its gross domestic product and employs 75% of the population, according to the US International Trade Administration, an agency in the Department of Commerce.
Worryingly, the production of white maize – the key staple for South Africa and much of the region – was seen falling 17.2% to just over 7.04 million tonnes. Domestic white maize future prices are up about 25% over the past 12 months, which bodes ill for food inflation in South Africa at a time when it has been slowing.
“When you have good food security, prices go up a little bit. When you have bad food security, they get out of hand,” he said.
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