South Africa’s record electricity cuts last year could rise 10-fold by 2026 unless the country rapidly adds generation capacity from renewable energy sources, complemented by battery storage and even diesel-powered plants, a study by Meridian Economics has found.
The bulk of the country’s energy is generated by state-owned Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd, whose poorly maintained coal-burning plants have become increasingly unreliable, while government programs to secure more power from private producers have been dogged by delays.
While some steps have been taken to bolster output, such as exempting plants that generate as much as 100 megawatts of electricity from requiring a license, much more needs to be done to stabilize the system, Meridian analysts wrote in a report published Monday. “In the absence of further urgent and drastic interventions, load shedding is likely to increase substantially in the coming years,” the analysts said, referring to the local term for rolling blackouts implemented to prevent the grid from collapsing. The addition of about 1,400 megawatts of thermal capacity, which typically sees diesel fuel being burnt during periods of peak demand, could provide backup power as more clean energy generation is added to the grid, they said.
A number of other companies that recently secured tenders to supply renewable energy to the grid under another program may have difficulty concluding their financial arrangements due to rising supply-chain costs and other challenges, according to people familiar with the details.
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