Climate change may bring more variable weather but we can reduce the risk of disasters
In one of the wettest years in the Western Cape's recorded rainfall history, the storm of the 2023 Heritage Day weekend brought more rain in three days than in the two mid-winter months.
Cut-off lows are not uncommon, and while most are not as disastrous as this one, we have seen a few affect KwaZulu-Natal in the past few years, with higher loss of life. And of course theTheir occurrence is not attributed to climate change, and they are part of the natural variability of the mid-latitude weather system. Having said that, it is only when they affect human livelihoods and natural systems that we take any notice.
To put things in perspective, September is generally a rainy and moderately wet month in the south-western Cape with an average of 12 rainy days in the month , compared to 14 in July and August, 13 in June and 12 in May. Most of the rain fell between late afternoon Sunday 24 September and mid-morning Monday 25 September. In line with the unpredictable nature of COLs the heaviest rainfalls occurred in small pockets.
The extreme rainfall during June 2023, and the persistence of light rain and low temperatures through September led to very high soil moisture levels and full dams, meaning that any subsequent heavy rainfall event carried very high risks of flooding.
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