Six questions facing U.S. stock investors as 2023′s second half nears

If history is a guide, stocks’ strong start may give them a tailwind in the second half

. Since 1945, the S&P 500 went on to climb an average of 8 per cent in the second half of the year when it rose at least 10 per cent in the first six months, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.Where’s that recession?

“The prospect of a soft-landing, at least in investors’ minds, has gone from improbable early in the year to now quite possible,” analysts at UBS wrote. “Of course, this positive market scenario can evaporate quickly if inflation and jobs data disappoint.” While the S&P 500 has gained 14 per cent this year, the equal-weight version of the index – a proxy for the average stock – has gained just 4.2 per cent.

The S&P 500 tech sector now trades at 27 times forward earnings, according to Refinitiv Datastream. That is above its average of 20.9 times earnings, though well below levels reached during the dot com bubble.

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