August and September haven't been good for Bitcoin's price.
Traders have been sitting on their hands lately with the Bitcoin price being stuck between $29,000 and $30,000. This rangebound price action can’t continue forever, though.A recent report from Ark Invest entitled “Bitcoin – Breakout or Breakdown?” notes that “Bitcoin’s volatility dropped to a 6-year low during July, suggesting the potential for significant price action in either direction.
In other words, “the real economy and inflation have yet to digest 300 – 500 basis points” of Fed tightening. China’s exporting of deflation also adds fuel to the deflationary fire, the report states.This puts the lagging effect of Fed tightening on course to collide with Bitcoin’s halving rally in 2024 – 2025. If Ark’s analysis proves to be correct, the next bull run will likely be tame compared to previous cycles.
Yet some analysts believe just the opposite: because the Fed has finished raising rates , the macro situation is about to become even more auspicious for Bitcoin.“We are almost done with the interest rate hike cycle, so the current macroeconomic headwinds will soon begin to fade.
Kyle DaCruz, director of digital assets product at VanEck, expressed similar sentiments to Forbes by saying that Bitcoin’s scarcity combined with unprecedented growth in the money supply could lead to a continued rally.BTC price rally to resume in 2024?From 2011–2022, August has seen positive performance for BTC only five times, with the other seven months being in the red. September is even worse with just four out of 12 months seeing positive performance.
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