Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BofA Securities U.S. quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian’s forecasts for 2023 echo a near-consensus view that markets will bottom in the first half of next year,
“Our bull case, 4600, is based on our Sell Side Indicator being as close to a “Buy” signal as it was in prior market bottoms – Wall Street is bearish, which is bullish. Our bear case from stressing our signals yields 3000. In 2023, don’t index, outdex. If we kicked out the 50 largest companies, valuations are in line with history for the remaining S&P 450. But still crowded mega caps de-rating could dwarf these gains.
“Earnings Recession — While we may be coming towards the end of the rate hikes, Citi equity strategists argue that the earnings revisions have more to go and it is this that will drive market performance. History, as a guide, suggests the sector can outperform markets as a relative safe-haven that is subject to less negative earnings revision.
“Market declines will still weigh on wealth and capital markets-related fee income streams, and provisions should head higher thanks to a deterioration in forward-looking economic indicators, but underlying performance should remain underpinned by further sequential margin expansion , still remarkably strong loan growth , and no sign of a spike in actual credit losses.
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