It might take fewer infected people to achieve Covid-19 herd immunity than previously thought - and some spots in South Africa are already showing signs of this happening.
, Alex and Soweto, it is “highly unlikely that 50%-60% have been infected” and is more likely “30%-40% — which has already resulted in break in transmission”.
People in dense areas are highly susceptible to infection, he said, and “some evolution of community immunity” has manifested in those areas. By incorporating age and social activity level into the epidemiological models, they found that the level of community infection at which herd immunity kicks in changes from about 60% to about 43%, they said in their paper published in Science.
He said the findings have potential consequences “for release of lockdown and suggest that individual variation is an important feature to include in models that guide policy.”compiled at her institution show a decline in some provinces. However, she added: “I want to make the point that we are not out of the woods yet. All South Africans are urged to physically distance, wear masks and wash hands. We need to do this to protect ourselves and others, particularly vulnerable people.
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