Forty-three African heads of state attended the 2019 Russia-Africa summit. They had high hopes that Russia would emerge as a new source of investment and trade for the continent.
Since then, Russian trade with the continent has contracted to US$14 billion. It is lopsided, with Russia exporting seven times as much as it imports from Africa. Additionally, 70% of this trade is concentrated in just four countries: Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and South Africa.
This has largely been achieved through irregular means. These include propping up isolated, autocratic regimes through a combination of the deployment of Wagner paramilitary forces, electoral interference, disinformation and arms-for-resources deals.Predictably, half of the two dozen African countries where Russia has been actively plying its influence are in conflict.
While Russian-African economic ties are modest, the continent provides Russia with a global stage from which Moscow can puff up its geostrategic posture. Africa matters more to Russia than Russia does to Africa.Given Russia’s track record of destabilisation on the continent since 2019, it begs the question why African leaders would even consider attending the St Petersburg summit.
The summit is a chance to show it’s business as usual for Russia. And that Russia is not a pariah, but enjoys the implicit endorsement of its violations of international law by African heads of state. It’s one thing to take a non-aligned posture on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which may seem like a far-off conflict. But why would African leaders continue to engage with a foreign actor with an active record of undermining stability on the continent?
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