The Indian rupee may open marginally lower on Monday, bogged down by the decline in Asian currencies, to kick off a data-heavy week that includes the release of the U.S. inflation data and then the Federal Reserve rate decision.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.50 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 82.4625 in the previous session.
"Rupee traders will be hoping for a little bit of volatility this week," a fx spot trader said. "Apart from the absolutely crucial U.S. inflation and Fed, you have India inflation and the ECB," he said, referring to the European Central Bank's policy decision. Asian currencies were down 0.2% to 0.4% and the dollar index inched higher. Shorter maturity U.S. yields rose - the 2-year was at its highest in two weeks - supporting the dollar.
All eyes will be on the U.S. inflation data due Tuesday, just a day before the Fed interest rate decision. U.S. core inflation is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month and the headline by 0.2%, according to a poll by Reuters.But, the Bank of Canada's and the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise hikes dictate "complacency is not advisable", OCBC Treasury Research said in a note.Meanwhile, India's inflation data is due later in the day.
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