Failure to denounce Putin reveals Ramaphosa remains susceptible to conflating party and state interests
SA’s tepid response to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is difficult to understand. The matter was debated in parliament on Tuesday, with the government sticking to its line of urging “compromise” and negotiation, and insisting that SA should not “take sides”.
As a high-stakes gambler Putin is now all-in on Ukraine and will not stop until either his troops collapse or Ukrainian PresidentZelensky throws in the towel. In the process, he is bombing civilian targets such as maternity hospitals, blocking off refugee corridors and threatening dangerous escalation. There is nothing to do from an SA foreign policy perspective except to condemn Putin’s actions. There is nothing complex about it.
From a state perspective, the devastating effects of Russia’s actions will be all too keenly felt. It is scarcely a month since finance minister Enoch Godongwana presented his maiden budget speech. While commentators were generally muted about it — perhaps silently relieved that revenues were higher than expected — the budget shows our deep economic vulnerability to global shocks. Russia’s actions have ramifications across the continent, many of which will affect SA both directly and indirectly.
Second, the effect of higher interest rates is devastating for the few in SA who have disposable income and pay the lion's share of personal taxes. Not only are petrol prices higher, which will devastate domestic tourism, but interest service payments on home loans will also increase, further eroding spending power. Higher interest rates also increase the cost of domestic capital borrowing.
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