Rising globaltemperatures point to future widespread droughts uniofeastanglia
The study shows that even a modest temperature increase of 1.5°C will spell serious consequences in India, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Brazil and Egypt. These six countries were selected for study in the UEA project because they provide a range of contrasting sizes and different levels of development on three continents spanning tropical and temperate biomes, and contain forest, grassland and desert habitats.
In the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the drought probability is projected to triple in Brazil and China, nearly double in Ethiopia and Ghana, increase slightly in India, and substantially increase in Egypt. Finally in a 4 °C warming scenario, the probability of drought projected in Brazil and China is nearly 50%; 27-30% in Ethiopia and Ghana; nearly 20% in India; and 100% in Egypt.
In a 2 °C warming scenario, the length of droughts projected in all countries are projected to exceed three years. In a 3 °C warming scenario, droughts are projected to approach 4–5 years in length and in a 4 °C warming scenario, severe droughts of longer than five years are projected for Brazil and China, with severe drought the new baseline condition.
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