Rising battery prices threaten affordable EV push — via drivingdotca IndustryNews EV
To arrive at the average price, BNEF gathered almost 200 survey data points from buyers and sellers of lithium-ion batteries going into passenger EVs, commercial vehicles, buses and stationary storage applications. The headline figure is a volume-weighted average, so it hides a lot of variation by region and application. The lowest prices recorded were for electric buses and commercial vehicles in China at $131 per kWh. Average pack prices for fully electric passenger vehicles were $138 per kWh.
The big question is what happens next. BloombergNEF’s energy storage team expects prices to remain elevated next year, rising slightly in real terms over 2022 levels. Beyond that, the team is expecting prices to begin falling again in 2024 as more raw material supply comes online, supply chain pressures ease, and next-generation battery technologies and pack designs start to make their way into the vehicle mix.
It’s worth noting, though, that $100 per kWh is a nominal figure that’s been around for over a decade and doesn’t fully take into account how the cost of almost everything has increased due to inflation, particularly in the last 18 months. Average new-vehicle transaction prices in the US climbed to more than $48,000 this year, the highest ever. EVs are pulling up transaction prices a bit, but the cost of making a vehicle with an internal combustion engine also is rising.
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