A confluence of factors is stoking fears that shortage of rice supplies could mark a return to a broad increase in the prices of other food commodities in Asia.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon triggered by warming of water temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, which brings wild weather conditions that have wreaked havoc globally.30% hike in international food prices
"Prices have definitely spiked, and that's contributing to alarm and also, anecdotal stories of people panic stocking," said Erica Tay, an economist with Maybank covering Thailand and China. "But if you look at the overall supply and demand numbers, Asian countries are in a very position to ride out this price and supply shock in the rice market."
for three provinces, which typically account for nearly a quarter of the country's rice output. However, Tay pointed to the country's rice stockpile, which minimally stands at eight months of its annual needs.Black Sea grain deal collapse could be the catalyst for China to take stimulus action: David Reidel"This is one of the legacies of Covid," Tay said.
Consequently, the U.S.-based investment bank expects volatility around El Niño to first manifest through inflation, and then through net trade balances.
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