Trump is reportedly already floating a replacement Secretary of State
as the State department’s lead hostage negotiator, and has been rewarded with a growing portfolio. He’s also endeared himself to, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser, and to Pompeo himself, perhaps making him a natural successor.
Mnuchin would be a less intuitive pick. Unlike Trump and Pompeo, the Treasury secretary has taken a less hawkish approach to China, putting him out of step with the rest of the administration on a key foreign policy front. Still, Mnuchin remains close to the president, as evidenced by his rare longevity in the Trump administration. In a White House characterized by infighting and high turnover, surviving in Trump’s cabinet for three years makes him a competitive candidate by default.
Of course, their abilities to appease Trump notwithstanding, each comes with liabilities. Mnuchin was barely confirmed for his current job thanks to his lack of experience. His qualifications to serve as America’s top diplomat are even thinner, raising questions both about his ability to be confirmed and to fulfill his duties.
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